A return to fundamentals
Coming into 2025, investors couldn’t have been more bullish. Whether you measure it by allocations to equities or investor sentiment – by both ideals – investors were about as bullish as ever.
With a clear trend of indexing and the Mag 7, many investors are inordinately positioned toward U.S. large cap stocks.
While we have seen the Mag 7, tech stocks and the S&P 500® Index experience a dip and recovery this year, assets such as international stocks continue to outperform.
We believe that the conditions for the outperformance of non-S&P 500 equity assets remain intact.
Find out more in my 3Q 2025 The Download.
Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. Nothing presented herein is or is intended to constitute investment advice or recommendations to buy or sell any type of securities, to invest in any particular asset class or strategy or as a promise of future performance, and no investment decision should be made based solely on the information provided herein. There is a risk of loss from an investment in securities, including the risk of loss of principal. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that any specific investment will be profitable or suitable for an investor’s financial situation or risk tolerance. Diversification and asset allocation do not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. All performance results should be considered in light of the market and economic conditions that prevailed at the time those results were generated. Before investing, consider investment objectives, risks, fees, and expenses. Frontier may modify its process, opinions, and assumptions at any time without notice as data is analyzed.
Information provided herein reflects Frontier’s views and opinions as of the date of this newsletter and can change at any time without notice. Frontier obtained some of the information provided herein from third-party sources believed to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed, and Frontier does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy or completeness of such information.
Any forward-looking statements or forecasts are based on assumptions and actual results are expected to vary from any such statements or forecasts. No reliance should be placed on any such statements or forecasts when making any investment decision. The estimates, including expected returns and downside risk, throughout are calculated monthly by Frontier and will change from month to month depending upon factors, including market movements, over which Frontier has no control. They are only one factor among many considered in Frontier’s investment process and are provided solely to offer insight into Frontier’s current views on long-term future asset class returns. They are not intended as guarantees of future returns and should not be relied upon in making investment decisions.
GLOSSARY OF INDICES:
- S&P 500 Index: Tracks the stock performance of 500 leading companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States.
- U.S. Large Cap Growth: S&P 500 Growth Index = Measures the performance of the large-cap growth segment of the U.S. equity market.
- U.S. Large Cap Value: S&P 500 Value Index = Represents the value companies of the S&P 500 Index.
- U.S. Small Cap: S&P 600 Index = Measures the performance of small-cap stocks in the U.S.
- International Large Cap: MSCI EAFE Net Index = Measures the performance of large and mid cap representation across 21 developed markets countries* around the world, excluding the U.S. and Canada.
- International Small Cap: MSCI EAFE Small Cap Index = Measures the performance of small cap representation across developed markets countries around the world, excluding the U.S. and Canada.
- Emerging Markets: MSCI Emerging Markets Net Index = Measures the performance of large and mid cap representation across 24 Emerging Markets (EM) countries.
- US Core Bonds: Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index = Broad-based fixed-income index used by bond traders and the managers of mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) as a benchmark to measure their relative performance.
© Morningstar 2025. All rights reserved. The Morningstar Indexes are the exclusive property of Morningstar, Inc. Morningstar, Inc., its affiliates and subsidiaries, its direct and indirect information providers and any other third party involved in, or related to, compiling, computing or creating any Morningstar Index (collectively, “Morningstar Parties”) do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness and/or timeliness of the Morningstar Indexes or any data included therein and shall have no liability for any errors, omissions, or interruptions therein. None of the Morningstar Parties make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the results to be obtained from the use of the Morningstar Indexes or any data included therein.
Frontier provides model strategies to various investment advisory firms and does not manage those models on a discretionary basis. The performance and holdings of model strategies may vary from strategies managed by Frontier.
Frontier Asset Management, LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor. Frontier’s ADV Brochure and Form CRS are available at no charge by request at info@frontierasset.com or 307.673.5675 and are available on our website frontierasset.com. They contain important disclosures and should be read carefully.
20250709.22222